Punt by Peter Smith
On paper, this season's Michigan football team is better than Ohio State. If EA sports had a NCAA Football 2018 video game, and you simulated "The Game" 10 times, I think Michigan would probably win 7 or 8. (Perhaps more importantly, though…can you imagine how awesome the video game avatar for Don Brown would be? It'd be like a grizzled Super Mario with a Boston accent and a rage problem).
Unfortunately for the Wolverines, this game won't be played on paper, on a spreadsheet, or online; it'll be played on artificial FieldTurf composed of monofilament polyethylene blend fibers, with an infill composed of silica sand and cryogenic rubber. It'll be played in front of 105,000 neck-tattooed, Skoal-chomping, English language-defiling Buckeyes fans. In other words, Michigan can't hide behind its impressive statistics. Sure, the Wolverines have an advantage in a lot of statistical categories. But all those stats weren't compiled against the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium.
It's hard to describe the importance of home-field advantage to anyone who hasn't played competitive football. But when you're down there at field level, you know it's a real thing. And for whatever reason, it's a challenge to which Michigan has not be equal since the 2000 season. That's 18 years. 0 for 8. In fact, even including home games Michigan is an abysmal 3-15 vs the Buckeyes in this century. At a certain point, that kind of abuse diffuses throughout an entire institution - it affects the psyche and it permeates the culture. Michigan is now well beyond that certain point, and the weight of their underperformance is carried on the shoulderpads of the 2018 team. There has to be some doubt creeping into their subconscious. There is a mental advantage that OSU holds in this series. Until UM wins one in the 'Shoe, it'll be an additional hurdle they need to fight to clear - an additional ghost they need to line up against. Until the Wolverines prove they can beat the Buckeyes on the road in this millennium, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the reigning champ in the series.
It's even less likely UM will be up to this challenge given the coaching staff's record of preparing their players for challenging road contests. It's very well documented how poor Jim Harbaugh's record is in rivalry games and vs ranked teams, particularly on the road. Just watch the film in such games - UM's studs play like duds, especially in the first half. In last year's game against the Buckeyes, when Michigan had a chance to seize victory, a sure interception was dropped by UM's Josh Metellus and instead of a possible pick-6 for the Good Guys it ended in a touchdown for the Bad Guys. This year's team is no exception. Look at the way they played in the first half of the game in South Bend. More specifically, when the light shines brightest our players wilt instead of thriving. 6'2" Brad Hawkins loses a jump ball to a 5'9" walk-on. The examples of superior players inexplicably failing to execute are numerous. UM’s players experience a temporary case of the big-moment "yips". At Northwestern this year, Michigan came out completely flat, uninspired, sleeping through the first half on the way to a 0-17 start. Even against Rutgers - Rutgers! - they looked slow and sluggish early before righting the ship. If they do that against OSU they'll find themselves in a hole they can't dig themselves out of. This offense isn't built to score in a hurry or win a shootout like the Buckeyes can. This UM staff seems to lack the ability to mentally prepare their players, to get them in the right head space for these types of games. The players are either too keyed-up or not motivated enough. Do they come out wound up too tight? Drop easy catches and short-arm throws? Will it take a halftime speech by Harbaugh & Don Brown to get them in the game? Either way, they're not being put in the right place mentally to be able to execute from the start. And it's not all on the staff - at a certain point, it comes down to guys making plays. Michigan's guys don't seem to believe they're big enough for the moment.
While Shea Patterson has been a revelation for the Wolverines, the QB position represents a potential chink in the armor. UM can beat the Buckeyes if they can take advantage of OSU's big play vulnerability on the back end, which depends largely on Patterson's ability to execute at a high level. A so-so performance at this most important position on the field would be the difference between a 'W' and an 'L'. Last week against Indiana, Patterson didn't see a wide-open Higdon leak out of the backfield which could've gone for a TD but ended in a FG. Later, he short-armed a wide-open Gentry in the endzone and left more points on the field. Finally, McKeon got separation on a wheel route but the throw was behind him and out of bounds, leading to...you guessed it, another FG. I won’t put UM’s season-long issue with scoring TD’s on Patterson, but this is as good a place as any to point out that Michigan ranks 91st nationally in redzone TD efficiency. Sure, OSU's defense is suspect, but their offense is historically good. In order to keep up with them, UM will need to convert possessions into touchdowns - field goals alone will not win it this year. UM must be able to be explosive on offense, and whether they can do that or not comes down to precise execution by one player: Shea Patterson. A good game by Shea may not be enough - he needs to have a GREAT game. Is he still in the groove he was in during Michigan's impressive 3-game stretch? I mean, this kid hasn't played football in cold weather since he was in junior high. I truly believe Shea is a competitor and a gamer, but he'll be in a nightmarish environment in Ohio Stadium in late November.
Lastly, playing in Columbus means overcoming the officiating environment. I won’t really go into 2016 for my own sanity’s sake, but I think that game showed how much the referees – who unfortunately have not yet been replaced by AI or robots despite my weekly letters to the Big Ten, and are still flesh & blood human beings – can be influenced, if not directed, by the rabid Buckeye crowd. This is not a good thing for a Michigan team that is already one of the most penalized teams in college football, even when the Buckeyes aren’t paying off the refs. Michigan is 103rd nationally in that category, meaning they attract penalty flags like an OSU alumni event attracts mouth-breathers and tribal tattoos. Not surprisingly, penalties killed UM in South Bend, almost destroyed them in Evanston (11 for 100 yards), and in East Lansing they tried to give the game away with 9 penalties for 99 yards. So it’s especially a problem in big road games. OSU doesn’t need help racking up yards, so if UM gift wraps 100 yards for the Buckeyes, they’re in for a long ride home. With all the fanfare and all the emotion, will UM be smart and disciplined enough to somehow overcome what will probably be an uphill battle on the officiating front? It certainly is cause for some serious concern.
In short, don't believe all the hype about Michigan. In this game it doesn't matter how good you looked the rest of the season. History tells us a lesser Michigan team will show up on Saturday. Michigan shouldn't be considered a favorite in this type of game or in this series until they've proven they can play up to the level of the competition when the spotlight shines brightest, especially in Columbus.
Ohio State: 31 Michigan: 28
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Counter-Punt by Mitch Smith
I understand the concerns. Michigan has failed to rise to the occasion year, after year, after year. Columbus is an unruly beast that has been tamed but once by Michigan this millenium. When Michigan faces Ohio State with a 50% chance to win they invariably lose. People have plenty of reasons to pick Ohio State to win.
Those people are wrong.
Michigan is the better team this year. The math says so and you can’t argue with math. My favorite statistical ranking system, Resume S&P+, has Michigan as the 3rd best team in the country. This system puts Michigan’s performances this year 9 points per game better than Ohio State, who is ranked 13th. This is especially relevant data as Michigan and Ohio State have played mostly the same opponents. If anything, Michigan’s schedule has been more difficult. Another popular model for predicting outcomes is taking the yards per play gained and conceded for each team. SECFans used this model for the Michigan-Ohio State matchup. The result: Michigan gaining 2 yards per play more than Ohio State and winning by 15 points. That basically means every time the ball is snapped Michigan is expected to gain 2 yards of field position, either on offense or defense. That’s a hell of a tide for Ohio State to beat back.
In the three biggest games they’ve played this year--versus Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State--Michigan dominated the other team. I already shared with you the defenestrating statistics Michigan put up in those games. In Ohio State’s three biggest games--versus Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State--they looked like a mediocre team. They beat Penn State by 1 point and Penn State really should have won. Purdue boat-raced the Buckeyes. Ohio State did beat Michigan State by more than we did, but I watched that game and to call it football would be generous. Ohio State couldn’t move the ball whatsoever and neither could Sparty. The only times Ohio State scored a touchdown Michigan State either turned the ball over with Ohio State in scoring position or literally in the endzone.
Looking at the matchups from my amateur perspective, I think Michigan matches up well. Let’s start with the Wolverines on defense. Dwayne Haskins has put up some amazing numbers this year. Record breaking numbers at Ohio State. But I’ve watched him enough to see a major flaw. Haskins is a deadly weapon when given the time and space to throw the ball, but wilts in the face of any pressure. His throws become errant and he makes poor decisions. Don Brown is known as Dr. Blitz and his medical staff of Gary, Winovich, and Uche will be surgical in attacking the pocket. Ohio State has struggled with running the ball. Year after year under Brown, Michigan has been one of the best run defenses in the country. Brown has stated his primary defensive strategy: stop the run first to set up longer yardage downs, then blitz like there’s no tomorrow when the opponent is required to pass. That is exactly what I expect to happen when the Buckeyes are on offense.
Now let’s look at the flip side. Ohio State’s defense has been subpar this year. They give up big plays and their linebackers make poor decisions. Harbaugh must be chomping at the bit to face them. Harbaugh’s offense is designed to give linebackers headaches. It is difficult for linebackers to tell which gap the running back will be headed to. Linebackers that get over aggressive against our running attack will be burned by play-action passes. Our tight-ends are too athletic to be covered by linebackers. Michigan may struggle at times to score in the red zone, but that doesn’t matter when you are facing a defense that allows so many scores from outside the redzone and your offense is designed to exploit their weakness.
Sure, Michigan struggled against Notre Dame and Northwestern. But what I took away from those games is Michigan’s ability to respond to adversity. We went down heavily to both teams and clawed our way back into contention. We fell short against the Irish, but had our largest comeback under Harbaugh against Northwestern. Michigan won by great margins in their biggest games since then and built those leads in the second half. Michigan has gotten stronger over the course of games and over the course of the season. Ohio State, on the other hand, has looked more and more susceptible as the season has gone on. Faced with adversity against Purdue, Ohio State gave up and lost by 29. Ohio State barely escaped Maryland with a victory last week and once again they really should have lost: Maryland had a wide open two-point conversion to win but just missed the throw.
This is why Michigan will win. We’ve come into The Game in years past with high hopes, but in reality we stumbled into those games. At the same time, Ohio State had a buzzsaw-like look in their run-up. The roles are flipped this year. Michigan is the buzzsaw and Ohio State is teetering over the edge. It’s no surprise, really, given the story of their season with Urban Meyer. You reap what you sow. Michigan has sowed years of work, a decade of disappointment, and games we should have won but lost. This year we’ll reap the benefits of what we’ve sowed. Ohio State has skated by this year. They’ve sowed poor performances and they’ll reap squat against Michigan. They’ve sowed more horrible things off the field and are reaping a twisted, rotten harvest.
It may be overplayed, but Thanos says it best: “In time, you will know what it’s like to lose. To feel so desperately that you are right, yet to fail all the same. Dread it, run from it, destiny still arrives”.
Balance will be restored Saturday. Praise be to Thanos. And Harbaugh.
Michigan: 41 Ohio State: 20
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Bonus: Schrodinger’s Punt
Thanos arrives at kick-off and uses the powers of the infinity stones to influence the game.
The Power Stone enhances Ben Mason’s strength to super-mythic proportions. He can not be tackled. He has 12 carries and 12 touchdowns.
The Space Stone makes it impossible for the Michigan pass rush to collapse the pocket and for our defensive backs to cover receivers. Haskins throws 12 times for 12 touchdowns.
The Mind Stone blesses Don Brown with god-like predictive abilities. Every time Ohio State runs the ball they fail, miserably. It looks like in Tecmo Super Bowl when you pick the other team’s play. Ohio State finishes with -200 rushing yards.
The Soul Stone wielded by Urban Meyer releases vengeful spirits from its paradimensional holds. These spirits possess the football whenever Shea Patterson throws, flinging it in random directions where no Michigan player has a chance to catch it. Patterson finishes with 0% completion rate.
The Time Stone warps us back to the year 2006 and Michigan is forced to relive Football Armageddon. And again. And again.
The Reality Stone alters the fabric our universe. Football is now a competition solely of academic and ethical nature. Michigan transcends into a 5th dimension football avatar. Ohio State implodes into a single, infinitely dense point incapable of operation in this arena.
Michigan: ∞ Ohio State: 1 divided by 0
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