Heading down the home stretch, here are the standings:
1st(tied): Alexx/Pete, 60-39 (8-4)
1st(tied): Madison/Chuck, 60-39 (8-4)
3rd(tied): Mar/Dan, 59-43 (8-4)
3rd(tied): Mitch, 59-43 (9-3)
3rd(tied): Sue/Garry, 59-43 (9-3)
You've made 99 picks so far this year. On Friday, Fresno St at Boise St will be the 100th game you try to predict the winner. Give yourself a pat on the back for making it this far and for keeping it so close. 10 weeks gone and only 4 picks stand between the best and worst record. I think this mostly speaks to how consistent our picking styles have been and how smart we are, but it does make me wonder if we need to change something up to get some separation. It won't happen this week and probably not this season. If we head into the final weekend with a potential tie, I'll need to do something. The most likely action is making people pick by the spread, not just straight up. I think this is better than my other idea, which is making some games worth more than others. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, but I think we're all comfortable enough with pick'em that I could knock up the complexity a bit by including the spread.
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It seems like such a distant, strange time. Michigan had to claw back to beat Northwestern by 3 points and we didn't know if the cat would be alive when we opened the box.
The cat is alive. It's not just a cat. It's a lion. It's a sabretooth tiger. It's the frickin' king of Wakanda. Here are some stats from the three wins against Wisconsin, Michigan St, and Penn St that you may have seen already:
- Michigan outscored these 3 opponents 101-27.
- Michigan outgained these 3 opponents 1242 yards to 563.
- Michigan forced 6 turnovers and conceded only 2.
- Michigan had as many interceptions returned for touchdowns (2) as opposing quarterbacks had touchdown passes.
- The opposing starting quarterbacks had 17 completions on 58 attempts (29% completion rate), for 249 yards (4.3 yards per attempt).
- Shea Patterson had 39 completions on 62 attempts (63% completion rate), for 480 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), and 4 touchdowns.
- Shea Patterson also ran for 156 yards on 28 attempts (5.6 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns.
- Shea Patterson accounted for more touchdowns (6) than all 3 opponents combined (4).
I'm sure there are even more detailed stats that display how dominant Michigan has been over this stretch. Maybe the most significant data point is this: Michigan is the first Big Ten team to win 3 consecutive games against ranked opponents in 21 years. The last team to do so: the 1997 Michigan Wolverines, National Champions. This team is a snow leopard. The snow leopard is the rarest cat to observe in the wild. This sight is so rare some dubbed it "the ghost cat". You weren't even sure if it really existed. You'll forgive Michigan fans for thinking that a season like this could ever exist, given our recent history.
Humans try to make comparisons all the time. It's how we judge things, how our minds work. Often this occurs when making comparisons in contexts that are somewhat dubiously linked. So, naturally, it is no different in sports. We rank teams that haven't played each other or even really similar opponents. When human minds fail, we turn to mathematics to figure out which team is better. When one team is declared on the field to be better than all the rest that year, we try to compare them to teams in the past. After you were made aware of this year's connection to 1997, you probably tried to compare the two teams. I know I did. I wanted to know if we had a real shot to win it all.
Being a fan of a team brings a lot of baggage along with it. You have a lifetime of highs and lows you associate with a team. Your current emotional state fits into the context of many states. When Michigan heads into Columbus in a few weeks, you'll be reminded of all these past states. The successes in 1997 and 2003. The failures of almost every other year, most notably in 2006 and 2016. You have a fear that things will go poorly because of those teams from 2 and 12 years ago. You're making the comparison: highly ranked Michigan teams that are just as good (if not better) than highly ranked Ohio State teams lose. Some of you may be dreading the Ohio State game because of this comparison.
You're wrong to dread it. You should be chomping at the bit to reach Columbus. That Michigan team from 2 years ago is not at all the same team as this one. Some of the coaches are the same, but almost none of the important players are. Even more so for teams from 2006, 2003, or 1997. You have to dissociate those events. Michigan is genuinely, generationally great this season. Ohio State is just good. It's fine to compare teams, as long as you do so in an appropriate context. Comparing 2006 Michigan to 2018 Michigan is pointless. Comparing 2018 Michigan to 2018 Ohio State, when we have played similar competition, is useful. Take a look at the resume S&P rankings. Michigan is one of 3 teams to be performing above expectations. The other 2 are Clemson and Alabama. Pretty good company. Ohio State is performing almost 13 points per game worse than Michigan against expectations. Ignore the ghosts haunting you from seasons past: Michigan will beat Ohio State this year.
In racing video games, there is a special feature for running time trials. When you perform a race to get the best time, the game will save your best laps. While trying to beat these laps, you'll see an overlayed image of your vehicle performing those best laps. That transparent vehicle is called a 'ghost'. You know you're racing poorly when you can see the ghost in front of you. You know you're racing well if you past your ghost. Let's imagine a 'ghost' for Michigan's football season. We lost a lot of ground by stumbling out of the gate against Notre Dame. Since then, we've actually overachieved, making enough ground on our ghost that we're basically neck and neck with it. What's even more telling is imagining our opponent's ghosts when they face Michigan. Penn State couldn't even see their ghost by the time the game ended.
Let 2018 Michigan be 2018 Michigan. Many of the players on this team weren't even born yet when Michigan won the National Title in 1997. Many of them did not have emotional attachments to the teams in 2003 or 2006. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashan Gary weren't on the team in 2016 when we lost in Columbus. They are partly playing for that team because Harbaugh, Brown, Winovich, and some others they know were on it. They love the fans, but they're not really playing for us. Most of all they're playing for themselves, for their team. Look at how much this year means to them:
When we won the National Title in 1997, Pete told me the last time we did was 1948. He said we'd never see it again in our lifetimes. I thought he was crazy but it seems about right. The only thing I'd change is that teams like this come along only a few times in our lives. As I said at the start of the season: this too shall pass. Don't live in the past. Live in the moment and appreciate this team for what it is.
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